A bias towards the home team in major international tournaments is only natural – but how much support for a favourite sports team or athlete is actually down to home bias or other thinking traps? We surveyed more than 12,000 people across 13 countries to find out how they think about sport – read the full report here.
Feelings on finance
Survey results underline that when emotions begin to affect choices, especially if the chance to have a friendly bet emerges, there can be a risk of financial loss.
In Cup-o-nomics 2016, Turkey and Italy appear to exhibit the highest home team bias – even though bookies rate their chances as lower than Spain’s.
Spain is the highest valued squad when comparing Transfermarkt estimates.
Fortunately, loss aversion can also play a role. Our survey reveals that few in any country may be prepared to risk much for a win, whether what's sacrificed is a portion of salary, or temporary access to the mobile phone.
“Worth it” in Spain? The Spanish team – which won Euro 2008 and 2012 tournaments – is worth €658m, according to Transfermarkt, if transfer costs for all 23 players are added.2
Ronaldo tops in Portugal The highest valued Euro 2016 player is Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, whose estimated worth in terms of transfer cost is €103m.3
But will Germany win? When asked who they think will actually win, more people vote for Germany than any other team. Bookies favour Germany too.4
Turkey – home of “super fans” Not only do Turks say they’d pay for a last-minute ticket to watch their team in the final, but they are keener to sacrifice earnings or give up their mobile phone for a month to win.5
Home comes first in Italy Responses from Italy also suggest a high degree of home bias, with 80% backing the Italian team, and 28% expecting a win.6
Keeping cooler in Poland People in some countries – Poland for instance – may have a high share (72%) who support their home team, but far less (18%) expect a win.7
France shrugs off chances France has the lowest level of support – less than half (49%) – for its home team. Yet nearly a quarter (23%) of the French rate their chances.
This article is related to the ING International Survey:
May 30, 2016
Who do you think will win Euro 2016? Chances are, it won’t be the same team the bookies have picked, and findings from the ING International Survey - Cup-o-nomics 2016 hint at the reasons for this. Our survey...